The noun meaning a sure winner is shoo-in, not shoe-in. The term uses the verb shoo, which means to force something to go away. The idea is that the person being shooed—for example, into the winner’s circle, into a job, or into a field of award nominees—is such a lock that we can shoo him or her in without hesitation.
Examples
Shoe-in is a common misspelling. For example, these writers use the noun well, but it is spelled wrong:
Following five interviews, I assumed that I was a shoe-in for the position. [Huffington Post]
Lively Celtic tunes a shoe-in at opera house [Auburn Citizen]
And these writers spell shoo-in correctly:
They strode like a colossus over the catwalks this spring, and were a shoo-in to become the biggest fashion trend of 2011. [Irish Times]
He says some of his supporters thought he was a shoo-in, so they didn’t bother voting. [Toronto Star]
He’s the most consistent of all the celebrities, ridiculously likable and practically a shoo-in for the finals at this point. [Houston Chronicle]
As a noun, shoo-in has a hyphen. Theoretically, it could be used as a phrasal adjective, in which case it wouldn’t need a hyphen. We were unable to find examples from current publications, so here’s how we imagine it might be used:
All the shoo-in nominees handled themselves gracefully when the unknown actor received the award.

